Hedge funds double short bets on big four banks to a record $11b

Australia’s major banks are under a fresh attack from hedge funds who have doubled their short positions in the past six months to almost $11 billion, betting the sector’s earnings will fall amid expectations that interest rate rises and proposed changes to negative gearing policy will weaken mortgage growth.

It is the biggest short position held against the four major banks since the corporate regulator began collecting data on hedge funds in July 2010. The figure may be even greater than $10.9 billion, as some brokers said that a number of hedge funds were doing their shorting via derivatives, which are not captured by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

Commonwealth Bank is the biggest target of the short sellers, comprising just over half of the $10.9 billion in short positions, with Westpac the second most targeted. Hedge funds are trying to profit from the expected fall in big banks’ share prices.

The number of shares reported as sold short in CBA and NAB is at its highest level this decade, with both having been targeted more in the month following the federal budget’s proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, while Westpac’s are at a two-year high.

Hedge funds said the major banks had been hit by a perfect storm of macroeconomic weakness, stalling property prices, rising unemployment and falling credit growth, which they expect to start showing up in bank earnings later this year.

Australia’s big stockbrokers are touring New York and Toronto to get more North American investors interested in a trade to short the banks, said multiple sources who requested anonymity to speak freely.

Patrick Hodgens, chief investment officer at Australia’s Firetrail Investments, which has short-sold all four big banks in equal measure since mid-April when it became clear the government would likely crack down on housing investment, said, “The big banks are priced to perfection, and any earnings downgrades will be treated pretty harshly. Valuations are very rich for the earnings growth banks are providing.”

Hodgens said housing investment, which has underwritten the banks’ strong credit growth since the pandemic, could halve due to the government’s crackdown on negative gearing and capital gains tax.

The government’s tax changes in the budget included limiting negative gearing to new residential properties, replacing the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount with an inflation-indexed model and applying a minimum 30 per cent tax rate to capital gains and discretionary trusts.

Hodgens is also assessing weekly auction clearance rates and monthly house price data for signs of housing market stress.

Regal Funds’ portfolio manager Mark Nathan, whose fund has a long-held short position in CBA, said the worsening outlook for the banks was a risk for the broader Australian economy.

“With banks, you always get a multiplier effect. If houses lose a bit of value, people don’t feel as wealthy, they spend less money, they invest less, so you get a multiplier effect with the banks,” Nathan said.

“That’s the big change since the budget. The market is less comfortable with what was previously a reasonable growth outlook, and downgrading that to a more modest growth outlook.”

The combined value of short positions in the big four banks is about 2 per cent of their market capitalisation. CBA and Westpac are among the most “crowded” short-selling trades in Australian blue chips, according to stockbroker UBS.

Brokers said the shorting was being led by Australian fund managers, including the likes of Regal and Firetrail, which run long and long/short portfolios and are betting weaker bank earnings will pressure their historically high valuations.

They are waiting to see if foreign hedge funds – who have periodically and unsuccessfully shorted the major banks on the premise that there was a bubble in Australian property that would burst – will be enticed to have another crack.

Barrenjoey banking analyst Jon Mott says there is no sign of a broader offshore campaign yet.

But Blackwattle Investment Partners’ portfolio manager Joe Koh said the short trade in the banks could broaden out should the proposed budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax be legislated, and as consumer and business sentiment buckles under higher interest rates and petrol prices.

“There could be a further wave of selling because offshore hedge funds are waiting for the budget changes to be officially passed, rather than delving into local politics and the risks of last-minute changes,” Koh said.

“There has been a sudden downturn post-budget in many residential property metrics: valuations and appraisals by potential sellers, the number of property inspections, and investor mortgage drawdowns, to name a few. There is a wait-and-see attitude in the housing market, which will likely flow on to furniture and home appliance retailers.”

The rise in short bets comes after a stellar run for the big four banks that had been bid up by passive superannuation fund buying and offshore fund managers seeking to invest in big liquid Australian stocks.

It is the biggest short attack on the banks since the 2018 Hayne royal commission exposed widespread misconduct in the sector, and the biggest by dollar value ever.

Sage Capital’s portfolio manager Sean Fenton, whose fund is also shorting bank shares, said the big difference this time was that the short bets are all based on near-term earnings.

“You don’t need to be calling out the collapse of the banking system to say they’re expensive with earnings downgrades ahead of them,” Fenton said. “The budget is the trigger.”